Long Road to Denver

Sorry, Barack Obama.  Clearly, I jinxed you.

Obama still ahead on delegates, but a long, nasty struggle till the convention in the summer.

My first reaction this morning to the Texas and Ohio primary results was a "reset" back to my pre-primary feelings of resignation. 

Since Hillary has no deep-seated beliefs beyond wanting to become President, and Obama keeps beating her among progressives and independents, she'll run bland and to the right, still posturing about being tough on national defense without revealing any actual ideas, taking watered-down Republican positions on domestic issues and avoiding any tough stands in Congress against Bush, and the rest of the time scolding voters for being unrealistic and naive for daring to long for leadership outside her "pre-vetted" machine.

We'll end up with Hillary as the nominee, because in my entire adult life the Democratic party has selected  a truly new presidential candidate exactly once--Bill Clinton for his first term.

Of course, that's also the only time they've selected a winner and a re-electable successful president since 1960 (Johnson produced crucial progressive achievements, but by his own judgment, was not re-electable, which is why he did not run in '68; Carter was a weak failure who didn't earn a second term).

But Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton.  She's running essentially as a crypto-Vice President, on the idea of reviving the long-tarnished hopes of the last Democratic Presidency after a long period of conservative power.  She's essentially the Mondale of the moment.

The failures of the Mondale, Gore, Dukakis, and Kerry candidacies, and the popular passion and vote totals for Obama, are probably not enough to teach the Democratic party not to choose the nominee who looks "safe": part of a prior administration or long-time party insider, supported by a host of consultants and big donors and pollsters.

If Hillary secures the nomination, and fueled by the Bush collapse, actually takes the national election, I still foresee four more years of the hideous, exhausting Bush/Clinton dynastic morass, a feast for the cable television and talk show hosts, the right-wing hate machine and lobbying crowd, and a disaster for achieving any actual work, since it will be All About Hillary and political discourse will continue to be held down at the tabloid, personality-driven, content-free depths of the last fifteen years.

But most likely, we'll be in for a McCain presidency and a resurgent right, high on the the knowledge that the Democratic party has failed to elect a president in an entire generation.

These thoughts, obviously, are gloomy thoughts to have, and not especially healthful and helpful ones.  Perhaps a little time passing and some spring sunshine will help me shift my perspective. :-(

Comments

[Kathleen]

PLEASE - try to stay hopeful!! We still might manage to see the first truly visionary nominee since...well, since I was in diapers and before you were a twinkle.

It could happen!

The country is really really ready. And she's too much a school-marm to stop herself from being the shrill pain in the ass that she is -- our fellow citizens will surely turn toward the promise of hope and real collaboration and trust and the openness of tomorrow instead of a repeat of the partisanism and nastiness of our recent past.

[lizkdc]

Go, you cheerleader, you! Your eloquence makes me feel better already.

[Beth]

I *so* feel your pain. Me? I think that PA is more like WI than OH, and so think that this could yet turn around again. I sure hope so.

[Beth]

I *so* feel your pain. Me? I think that PA is more like WI than OH, and so think that this could yet turn around again. I sure hope so.

[Beth]

Oh, duh. Sorry for the accidental reload and double comment there. But to add a bit more re my prediction, I find it really amazing that my dad -- a lifelong dem with blue collar roots -- has sworn to vote for McCain over Hillary. More interesting to me is that his wife, a lifelong Repub, is seriously considering voting for Obama.

Very much anecdotal. But I'll take my hope where I can get it!

[lizkdc]

One thing's for sure, as your anecdotes point to--this time round is *all* about the unpredictable. A year ago, who would have predicted McCain locking up the nomination for the Republicans or Obama's lead on the Democratic side? A lot of people are giving this election more thought than they usually do, from all sides of the spectrum, and I should respect that. Shut up, internal naysayer self?